Unpopular Opinion: Housing Is More Affordable Heading Into 2026 — and That Wasn’t an Accident
This might not be a popular thing to say, especially after years of frustration around housing, but it needs to be said:
Housing in Toronto and the GTA is more affordable heading into 2026 — for renters and for buyers — and government actions did play a role in that.
We’re so used to hearing that housing policy has failed that we’ve missed what’s actually happening on the ground.
Let’s break it down.
Renting feels easier than it did — because supply finally arrivedIf you were renting in 2022 or 2023, you probably remember how extreme it felt:
multiple offers on rentals
no time to think
landlords choosing tenants in hours
That pressure has eased.
Across Toronto and the GTA, rental supply increased meaningfully in 2024–2025:
purpose-built rentals were completed
condo units that couldn’t sell became rentals
builders pivoted toward rental projects that didn’t require presales
Vacancy rates moved up, rent growth cooled, and renters suddenly had options again. Renting isn’t cheap — but it’s less desperate than it was.
That didn’t happen by accident.
Buying also feels more achievable — and that’s a big shiftFor buyers, especially first-time buyers, the market looks very different than it did a few years ago:
prices are down from the peak
inventory is higher
bidding wars are rare
buyers can negotiate again
Add in slightly more flexible mortgage rules and stabilized interest rates, and something important has happened:
The market slowed enough for buyers to breathe.
That alone improves affordability — even if prices are still high by historical standards.
So… did government action actually help?Here’s the uncomfortable part.
Yes — at least in the short term.
Higher interest rates slowed demand. Rental incentives increased supply. Tighter lending reduced speculation.
The result was less pressure across the system — on renters and buyers.
Not perfect policy. Not proactive policy. But effective in cooling an overheated market.
The issue nobody’s talking about yetWhile things feel calmer today, something else is happening quietly in the background:
Builders are building fewer homes for buyers.
In Toronto and the GTA:
condo pre-construction sales dropped sharply in 2024–2025
projects were delayed, cancelled, or redesigned as rentals
builders pivoted because condos rely on presales — rentals don’t
That matters, because housing shortages don’t show up immediately.
They show up years later.
What this could mean for 2026–2028Housing construction today becomes housing supply tomorrow.
If ownership housing continues to lag:
renters may continue to have more choice
buyers could face a tighter market again
prices could re-accelerate once demand returns
In other words, today’s affordability could be temporary if we don’t fix the supply of homes people can actually buy.
And yes — taxes and policy are part of thisToronto relies heavily on land transfer taxes. When fewer homes sell, government revenue drops.
Historically, that’s when governments react:
adjusting taxes
introducing new incentives
changing rules mid-cycle
Canadian housing policy has always been reactive. There’s no reason to believe that pattern has changed.
What first-time buyers should take from thisRight now, Toronto is in a rare balanced moment:
renting is easier than it was
buying is calmer than it was
That doesn’t mean rush — and it doesn’t mean wait forever.
It means understand where we are in the cycle.
Because if ownership construction doesn’t pick back up, today’s calm could easily turn into tomorrow’s crunch.
Final thought
It’s uncomfortable to say, but it’s true:
Housing is more affordable heading into 2026 because demand slowed and supply increased — intentionally or not.
Whether that affordability lasts depends on what happens next.
And that’s the part worth watching.